Recent extreme events and the disruptions they caused have made food supply chain resilience a key topic for researchers and policymakers. This paper provides input into these discussions by evaluating the efficiency and resilience properties of the leading policy proposals. We develop a conceptual model of a prototype agricultural supply chain, parameterize the model based on results from the empirical literature, and conduct simulations to assess the impacts on resilience and economic welfare of four key policy proposals; (i) intensified antitrust enforcement to improve market competition, (ii) subsidization of entry of additional processing capacity, (iii) prevention of price spikes through anti-price-gouging laws, and (iv) diversification of production and processing across multiple regions. Results show that some of the policies have potential to improve supply-chain resilience, but their impacts depend importantly on the existing market structure, and resilience gains often come at the cost of reduced efficiency and market surplus.
Nitrate pollution of groundwater is a pernicious issue affecting people and ecosystems in many regions of the world. Although scientists agree that nitrogen compounds from human activity enter the groundwater system, there remains a need for estimates of the causal impacts of land use on the nitrate concentrations in well water––the location where nitrate contamination has the largest impact on human health. In this paper, we provide evidence of the link between nitrate concentrations measured in well water and local land use using a dataset of repeated cross-sectional samples of about 5,000 groundwater wells and a detailed dataset of remotely sensed land uses from 2007 to 2021. Findings show that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of land use to grow high nitrogen crops within 500 meters of a well (for example, from 5% to 15% of the land surrounding a well) relative to undeveloped land leads to a 5.8% increase in nitrate concentrations within 5 to 12 years. Compare this to a 10 percentage point increase in land developed for urban use, which leads to a 1.6% increase in nitrate concentrations over a similar time frame.
Actions to mitigate the costs of climate change may exacerbate existing externalities. We study this in the context of groundwater in California, an open-access resource, by evaluating if averting behaviors taken in response to annual fluctuations in local heat and surface water scarcity lead to groundwater depletion and drinking well failures. Using the population of geocoded groundwater wells, we find that the surface water reductions and extreme heat experienced in 2021 lowered the groundwater table by 2 feet and 8 inches, respectively. This leads to drinking well failures in disadvantaged communities, with surface water curtailments and heat increasing failures by 4 and 5 percentage points. We show that agricultural groundwater pumping and well construction drive these external costs. These findings highlight that openaccess management of groundwater may exacerbate inequities in the ability of disadvantaged communities and future generations to buffer against weather shocks.
Nitrate contamination of drinking water is a widespread environmental concern and threatens human health. The magnitude of the environmental health consequences depend on an individuals' ability to avoid exposure. However, there are a number of factors which may undermine one's ability to avoid pollution exposure. This paper studies the heterogeneity in avoidance behavior following Safe Drinking Water Act nitrate violations. I find that consumers spend approximately \$4.7 million annually on bottled water and soda to avoid nitrate contaminated drinking water. However, consumers in resource-constrained areas exhibit substantially less protective behavior. This lack of averting behavior corresponds with 143 additional infant deaths per year from nitrate contamination relative to areas with less-costly access to safe drinking water. These results underscore both there are substantial costs from nitrate pollution and that these costs are disproportionately distributed to those with less ability to protect themselves.
Even as organic products have become more widely available, most organic growers in the United States still participate in niche markets, with few buyers and sellers and few trades being executed at a given area or point in time, relative to conventional segments of the market. Despite an increase in both organic production and available information to support decision making, growers continue to face challenges related to the thinness of organic markets. This report examines organic dairy and beef markets, including major feed inputs, to assess the current competitive status of these markets. Specifically, in each market, this report considers factors fundamental to determining whether buyers and sellers can form long-term, mutually beneficial buyer/seller relationships that may limit thin market challenges that might otherwise arise.